Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAZ-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
AZ-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$16,901 Vol.
$16,901 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
87%
Partido Republicano
13%
$16,901 Vol.
$16,901 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$14,057 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$2,843 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$16,901Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,901Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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