**Traders assign a 96.4% probability that Japan’s lower house (House of Representatives) will not be dissolved again in 2026, reflecting the LDP’s commanding position after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s February 2026 snap election victory.** That contest delivered the LDP a record postwar 316 seats and a two-thirds supermajority on its own, giving the government a fresh four-year mandate that runs until 2030 absent early dissolution. Recent developments reinforce stability. The main opposition Centrist Reform Alliance, formed to challenge the LDP, is fragmenting along its former party lines in September 2026, leaving no unified bloc capable of threatening the ruling coalition. Takaichi faces no immediate legislative or confidence crisis, and scheduled steps such as the September 17 cabinet reshuffle and an extraordinary Diet session starting October 5 point to routine governance rather than electoral maneuvering. Dissolution remains possible only under extreme conditions, such as a sudden collapse in cabinet approval ratings, a major unforeseen scandal, or an acute economic or diplomatic shock that prompts the prime minister to seek a renewed mandate. Absent such catalysts, the current supermajority and opposition disarray make another lower-house dissolution before year-end highly improbable in the eyes of traders.