Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Istambul a 15 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Istambul a 15 de setembro?
16°C 100.0%
14°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,105 Vol.
$2,105 Vol.
15 set 2026
14°C ou menos
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Sim
17°C
Não
18°C
Não
19°C
Não
20°C
Não
21°C
Não
22°C
Não
23°C
Não
24°C ou mais
Não
16°C 100.0%
14°C ou menos <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,105 Vol.
$2,105 Vol.
15 set 2026
14°C ou menos
$134 Vol.
Não
15°C
$98 Vol.
Não
16°C
$336 Vol.
Sim
17°C
$380 Vol.
Não
18°C
$375 Vol.
Não
19°C
$476 Vol.
Não
20°C
$156 Vol.
Não
21°C
$60 Vol.
Não
22°C
$26 Vol.
Não
23°C
$32 Vol.
Não
24°C ou mais
$32 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,105Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,105Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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