Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Moscovo a 21 de agosto?
Temperatura mais baixa em Moscovo a 21 de agosto?
9°C or below 91%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 34%
NOVO
NOVO
21 ago 2026
9°C or below
91%
10°C
58%
11°C
61%
12°C
34%
13°C
34%
14°C
34%
15°C
34%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
9°C or below 91%
11°C 61%
10°C 58%
12°C 34%
NOVO
NOVO
21 ago 2026
9°C or below
$87 Vol.
91%
10°C
$127 Vol.
58%
11°C
$92 Vol.
61%
12°C
$0 Vol.
34%
13°C
$0 Vol.
34%
14°C
$0 Vol.
34%
15°C
$16 Vol.
34%
16°C
$5,356 Vol.
1%
17°C
$150 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$69 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$69 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$5,967Data de Término
21 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,967Data de Término
21 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance and observational trends point to radiative cooling under partly clear skies and a weakening high-pressure system as the main drivers positioning 9°C or below as the leading outcome for Moscow’s minimum temperature on August 21. Late-August climatology already favors progressively lower overnight lows as daylight shortens and soil moisture supports greater heat loss, with historical averages near 12–14°C giving way to cooler readings when northerly flow or calm conditions prevail. Trader consensus reflected in the 45.5% implied probability on sub-10°C outcomes aligns with this seasonal shift, while the clustered probabilities around 11–13°C acknowledge forecast uncertainty from evolving cloud cover and wind patterns. Updated ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight will clarify whether a stronger cold advection episode materializes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions