**Marine layer dynamics and coastal cooling dominate the outlook for Los Angeles overnight lows on August 22.** Typical August conditions feature a strong marine layer that moderates minimum temperatures near the coast, with historical averages around 66°F and recent observed lows in the upper 60s. Current model guidance points to persistent on-shore flow and patchy fog, supporting a narrow distribution centered on 66–73°F, which explains the near-even market-implied probabilities (27–29%) across those bins. Slight differences in expected cloud cover, wind speed, and marine layer depth create the tight clustering, as even modest changes in nocturnal radiative cooling can shift the low by 2–4°F. Stronger sea breezes or thicker stratus would favor the lower side of the range, while clearer skies or weaker onshore flow could push toward 70–73°F. No major heat advection or offshore wind event is indicated in the latest runs, keeping extreme outcomes (below 64°F or above 74°F) at low single-digit probabilities. Updated NWS and ensemble forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will be the key catalyst for any market movement before resolution.