Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Seul em 26 de abril?
Temperatura mais baixa em Seul em 26 de abril?
8°C ou menos 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Vol.
$82,179 Vol.
26 abr 2026
8°C ou menos
Sim
9°C
Não
10°C
Não
11°C
Não
12°C
Não
13°C
Não
14°C
Não
15°C
Não
16°C
Não
17°C
Não
18°C ou mais
Não
8°C ou menos 100.0%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$82,179 Vol.
$82,179 Vol.
26 abr 2026
8°C ou menos
$34,202 Vol.
Sim
9°C
$33,064 Vol.
Não
10°C
$3,106 Vol.
Não
11°C
$1,097 Vol.
Não
12°C
$708 Vol.
Não
13°C
$1,401 Vol.
Não
14°C
$944 Vol.
Não
15°C
$2,466 Vol.
Não
16°C
$1,163 Vol.
Não
17°C
$2,045 Vol.
Não
18°C ou mais
$1,984 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$82,179Data de Término
26 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$82,179Data de Término
26 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for Seoul's lowest temperature on April 26 at 8°C or below at Incheon International Airport station, driven by the Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) latest short-term forecast projecting morning lows around 6–8°C amid clear skies and a stable high-pressure ridge. Recent cold air advection from the north, combined with light winds under 5 km/h and low humidity, promotes strong radiational cooling overnight, consistent with observed dips to 9°C on April 24–25 and typical late-April diurnal swings exceeding 15°C. KMA ensemble models show tight agreement, with no significant divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected low-level clouds or a sudden southerly breeze raising lows to 9°C, though upper-air data suggests minimal risk; final station observations resolve the market tomorrow morning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions