Recent model consensus from sources like GFS indicates a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 25 likely between 9–12°C under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and possible showers, supporting the leading market-implied probability for 13°C or higher. This positioning reflects the absence of strong high-pressure systems or northerly advection that would drive sharper overnight cooling, consistent with transitional autumn patterns where daytime highs near 14–16°C moderate diurnal ranges. Traders appear to weigh the current stable pressure fields around 1015–1020 hPa against historical late-September baselines, where minima occasionally dip below 10°C but recent runs show limited downside risk. Updated ensemble guidance ahead of the date remains the key variable that could shift these odds if a clearer air mass arrives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia em 25 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Varsóvia em 25 de setembro?
13°C ou mais 98%
3°C ou menos 50%
9°C 40%
4°C 39%
NOVO
NOVO
25 set 2026
3°C ou menos
50%
4°C
39%
5°C
39%
6°C
39%
7°C
39%
8°C
39%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C ou mais
98%
13°C ou mais 98%
3°C ou menos 50%
9°C 40%
4°C 39%
NOVO
NOVO
25 set 2026
3°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
50%
4°C
$0 Vol.
39%
5°C
$0 Vol.
39%
6°C
$0 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
39%
8°C
$0 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS indicates a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 25 likely between 9–12°C under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and possible showers, supporting the leading market-implied probability for 13°C or higher. This positioning reflects the absence of strong high-pressure systems or northerly advection that would drive sharper overnight cooling, consistent with transitional autumn patterns where daytime highs near 14–16°C moderate diurnal ranges. Traders appear to weigh the current stable pressure fields around 1015–1020 hPa against historical late-September baselines, where minima occasionally dip below 10°C but recent runs show limited downside risk. Updated ensemble guidance ahead of the date remains the key variable that could shift these odds if a clearer air mass arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
25 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS indicates a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 25 likely between 9–12°C under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and possible showers, supporting the leading market-implied probability for 13°C or higher. This positioning reflects the absence of strong high-pressure systems or northerly advection that would drive sharper overnight cooling, consistent with transitional autumn patterns where daytime highs near 14–16°C moderate diurnal ranges. Traders appear to weigh the current stable pressure fields around 1015–1020 hPa against historical late-September baselines, where minima occasionally dip below 10°C but recent runs show limited downside risk. Updated ensemble guidance ahead of the date remains the key variable that could shift these odds if a clearer air mass arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
25 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS indicates a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 25 likely between 9–12°C under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and possible showers, supporting the leading market-implied probability for 13°C or higher. This positioning reflects the absence of strong high-pressure systems or northerly advection that would drive sharper overnight cooling, consistent with transitional autumn patterns where daytime highs near 14–16°C moderate diurnal ranges. Traders appear to weigh the current stable pressure fields around 1015–1020 hPa against historical late-September baselines, where minima occasionally dip below 10°C but recent runs show limited downside risk. Updated ensemble guidance ahead of the date remains the key variable that could shift these odds if a clearer air mass arrives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions