The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the MA-04 House race due to the district's consistent partisan lean, where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans across southeastern Massachusetts communities including Newton, Attleboro, and Fall River. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss benefits from strong name recognition after multiple unopposed reelections, substantial fundraising reserves exceeding several million dollars, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers beyond limited primary interest from Thomas Stalcup. A Democratic primary featuring Jason Poulos has not altered the trajectory, as historical patterns in safe Democratic seats show incumbents prevailing. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset before the September 1, 2026, vote or late developments altering general-election dynamics ahead of November 3, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current structural factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa MA-04
Vencedor da eleição da casa MA-04
$40,245 Vol.
$40,245 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
3%
$40,245 Vol.
$40,245 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$20,242 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$20,004 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the MA-04 House race due to the district's consistent partisan lean, where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans across southeastern Massachusetts communities including Newton, Attleboro, and Fall River. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss benefits from strong name recognition after multiple unopposed reelections, substantial fundraising reserves exceeding several million dollars, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers beyond limited primary interest from Thomas Stalcup. A Democratic primary featuring Jason Poulos has not altered the trajectory, as historical patterns in safe Democratic seats show incumbents prevailing. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset before the September 1, 2026, vote or late developments altering general-election dynamics ahead of November 3, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$40,245Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the MA-04 House race due to the district's consistent partisan lean, where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans across southeastern Massachusetts communities including Newton, Attleboro, and Fall River. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss benefits from strong name recognition after multiple unopposed reelections, substantial fundraising reserves exceeding several million dollars, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers beyond limited primary interest from Thomas Stalcup. A Democratic primary featuring Jason Poulos has not altered the trajectory, as historical patterns in safe Democratic seats show incumbents prevailing. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset before the September 1, 2026, vote or late developments altering general-election dynamics ahead of November 3, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,245Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the MA-04 House race due to the district's consistent partisan lean, where registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans across southeastern Massachusetts communities including Newton, Attleboro, and Fall River. Incumbent Jake Auchincloss benefits from strong name recognition after multiple unopposed reelections, substantial fundraising reserves exceeding several million dollars, and the absence of competitive Republican challengers beyond limited primary interest from Thomas Stalcup. A Democratic primary featuring Jason Poulos has not altered the trajectory, as historical patterns in safe Democratic seats show incumbents prevailing. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset before the September 1, 2026, vote or late developments altering general-election dynamics ahead of November 3, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current structural factors.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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