Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race after comfortably winning his September 1 primary against challenger Jason Poulos. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his reelection on November 3. Auchincloss benefits from substantial fundraising advantages and the absence of a competitive Republican opponent in Tom Stalcup, who advanced unopposed. Limited recent developments include outside spending in the primary and independent candidacies from Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook. Scenarios that could shift odds include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout amid national shifts, though historical patterns and current fundamentals make such changes unlikely before the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa MA-04
Vencedor da eleição da casa MA-04
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race after comfortably winning his September 1 primary against challenger Jason Poulos. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his reelection on November 3. Auchincloss benefits from substantial fundraising advantages and the absence of a competitive Republican opponent in Tom Stalcup, who advanced unopposed. Limited recent developments include outside spending in the primary and independent candidacies from Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook. Scenarios that could shift odds include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout amid national shifts, though historical patterns and current fundamentals make such changes unlikely before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,249Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race after comfortably winning his September 1 primary against challenger Jason Poulos. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his reelection on November 3. Auchincloss benefits from substantial fundraising advantages and the absence of a competitive Republican opponent in Tom Stalcup, who advanced unopposed. Limited recent developments include outside spending in the primary and independent candidacies from Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook. Scenarios that could shift odds include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout amid national shifts, though historical patterns and current fundamentals make such changes unlikely before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,249Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in the Massachusetts 4th congressional district race after comfortably winning his September 1 primary against challenger Jason Poulos. The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+11 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around his reelection on November 3. Auchincloss benefits from substantial fundraising advantages and the absence of a competitive Republican opponent in Tom Stalcup, who advanced unopposed. Limited recent developments include outside spending in the primary and independent candidacies from Steve Chasse and Matthew Cook. Scenarios that could shift odds include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually high Republican turnout amid national shifts, though historical patterns and current fundamentals make such changes unlikely before the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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