Recent polling from Salve Regina University shows Helena Foulkes maintaining a roughly 20-point lead over incumbent Governor Dan McKee among likely Democratic primary voters, at 48% to 28% with three weeks until the September 9, 2026, contest. This consistent advantage, matching earlier University of New Hampshire surveys, has solidified trader consensus around Foulkes as the frontrunner. As a former CVS executive and 2022 primary challenger who came close in her initial bid, Foulkes benefits from name recognition and perceived strength in a rematch. McKee’s position as the sitting governor seeking a second term has not narrowed the gap despite institutional support. Minor candidates Gregory Stevens and Joe Shekarchi register negligible support in available data, leaving little room for shifts absent major late developments before early voting begins.