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Política·Fed

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?

Market icon
Política·Fed

Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?

75% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
75% chance
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—tied to headquarters renovation cost overruns—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, amid intensifying Republican pressure to clear the path for the nominee. Senate Banking Committee member Thom Tillis has explicitly conditioned his support on halting the investigation, echoed by Majority Leader John Thune's recent urging for swift resolution, as Trump's April 15 insistence on proving "incompetence" risks stalling Warsh's April 21 hearing and extending Powell's tenure beyond his May 15 term end. This standoff highlights tensions over Federal Reserve independence and monetary policy transition, with traders pricing in Trump's pragmatic incentives for a timely, dovish leadership shift.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 75% implied probability that President Trump drops the DOJ criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell—tied to headquarters renovation cost overruns—prior to Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation, amid intensifying Republican pressure to clear the path for the nominee. Senate Banking Committee member Thom Tillis has explicitly conditioned his support on halting the investigation, echoed by Majority Leader John Thune's recent urging for swift resolution, as Trump's April 15 insistence on proving "incompetence" risks stalling Warsh's April 21 hearing and extending Powell's tenure beyond his May 15 term end. This standoff highlights tensions over Federal Reserve independence and monetary policy transition, with traders pricing in Trump's pragmatic incentives for a timely, dovish leadership shift.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$148
Data de Término
31 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 75% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 75¢, the market collectively assigns a 75% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?" is 75% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 75% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.