Trader sentiment favors Anthropic at 59% implied probability for the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's sustained high Elo rating in style adherence tasks, outpacing rivals in nuanced instruction-following evals. Google trails closely at 45.5% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's recent leaderboard climb after April tweaks boosting coherence scores. Chinese contenders like Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), and Baidu (Ernie) cluster above 40%, fueled by aggressive open-model releases—DeepSeek-V2 previews and Qwen1.5 optimizations—closing the gap with Western leaders amid benchmark volatility. OpenAI and xAI lag as GPT-4o remains unlaunched and Grok iterations underperform in style control metrics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoWhich company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #2 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 57%
Moonshot 44%
Google 42%
ByteDance 41%

Anthropic
57%

Moonshot
44%

42%

ByteDance
41%

Alibaba
41%

DeepSeek
41%

Baidu
39%

Amazon
36%

Mistral
35%

xAI
31%

OpenAI
30%

Meituan
30%

Z.ai
28%
Anthropic 57%
Moonshot 44%
Google 42%
ByteDance 41%

Anthropic
57%

Moonshot
44%

42%

ByteDance
41%

Alibaba
41%

DeepSeek
41%

Baidu
39%

Amazon
36%

Mistral
35%

xAI
31%

OpenAI
30%

Meituan
30%

Z.ai
28%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors Anthropic at 59% implied probability for the #2 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena "Style Control On" leaderboard by April 30, propelled by Claude 3 Opus's sustained high Elo rating in style adherence tasks, outpacing rivals in nuanced instruction-following evals. Google trails closely at 45.5% on Gemini 1.5 Pro's recent leaderboard climb after April tweaks boosting coherence scores. Chinese contenders like Moonshot (Kimi), DeepSeek, Alibaba (Qwen), and Baidu (Ernie) cluster above 40%, fueled by aggressive open-model releases—DeepSeek-V2 previews and Qwen1.5 optimizations—closing the gap with Western leaders amid benchmark volatility. OpenAI and xAI lag as GPT-4o remains unlaunched and Grok iterations underperform in style control metrics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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