Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$163,533 Vol.
$163,533 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$163,533 Vol.
$163,533 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$163,533Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$163,533Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new flagship iPhone model each September drives the 97.3% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. This pattern has held without interruption since the original iPhone, supported by predictable supply-chain timelines, semiconductor production cycles, and annual hardware refreshes that include incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays. Trader consensus reflects this consistency, with few historical precedents for skipping a year. While extreme supply disruptions, major regulatory blocks on key components, or an unforeseen corporate pivot could theoretically delay the launch, such outcomes remain low-probability given Apple's diversified manufacturing and advance planning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions