Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh schedule for over a decade, with supply chain reports and component sourcing already aligning for the next iteration's features such as improved silicon and camera systems. No credible reports indicate production halts or major redesign delays as of early August 2026. While extreme supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows these rarely prevent a yearly model from reaching consumers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh schedule for over a decade, with supply chain reports and component sourcing already aligning for the next iteration's features such as improved silicon and camera systems. No credible reports indicate production halts or major redesign delays as of early August 2026. While extreme supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows these rarely prevent a yearly model from reaching consumers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$162,401Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh schedule for over a decade, with supply chain reports and component sourcing already aligning for the next iteration's features such as improved silicon and camera systems. No credible reports indicate production halts or major redesign delays as of early August 2026. While extreme supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows these rarely prevent a yearly model from reaching consumers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$162,401Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup drives the near-certain market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a consistent September hardware refresh schedule for over a decade, with supply chain reports and component sourcing already aligning for the next iteration's features such as improved silicon and camera systems. No credible reports indicate production halts or major redesign delays as of early August 2026. While extreme supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles in key markets, or unforeseen technical setbacks could theoretically shift timelines, historical precedent shows these rarely prevent a yearly model from reaching consumers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions