Apple's established annual product cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply chain issues, component shortages, or strategic shifts following recent hardware and software updates. Historical patterns of consistent launches, combined with ongoing development of advanced silicon and camera systems, reinforce this consensus. While near-certain, the outcome could still face last-minute adjustments from regulatory hurdles or unforeseen manufacturing delays, though none appear imminent as the expected window approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
A Apple lançará o iPhone 18 em 2026?
Sim
>99% chance
$235,610 Vol.
$235,610 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
>99% chance
$235,610 Vol.
$235,610 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual product cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply chain issues, component shortages, or strategic shifts following recent hardware and software updates. Historical patterns of consistent launches, combined with ongoing development of advanced silicon and camera systems, reinforce this consensus. While near-certain, the outcome could still face last-minute adjustments from regulatory hurdles or unforeseen manufacturing delays, though none appear imminent as the expected window approaches.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$235,610Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual product cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply chain issues, component shortages, or strategic shifts following recent hardware and software updates. Historical patterns of consistent launches, combined with ongoing development of advanced silicon and camera systems, reinforce this consensus. While near-certain, the outcome could still face last-minute adjustments from regulatory hurdles or unforeseen manufacturing delays, though none appear imminent as the expected window approaches.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$235,610Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual product cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced in September, underpins the market's 100% implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply chain issues, component shortages, or strategic shifts following recent hardware and software updates. Historical patterns of consistent launches, combined with ongoing development of advanced silicon and camera systems, reinforce this consensus. While near-certain, the outcome could still face last-minute adjustments from regulatory hurdles or unforeseen manufacturing delays, though none appear imminent as the expected window approaches.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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