President Trump's recent sharp criticisms of NATO allies for failing to provide support during U.S. military actions against Iran have fueled uncertainty around his attendance at the 2026 Ankara NATO summit on July 7–8, keeping trader consensus tightly balanced at 53% Yes. His public statements questioning the alliance's reciprocity—echoing past demands for higher defense spending—and threats to reconsider U.S. membership have eroded expectations, despite precedent from his participation in the 2025 Hague summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's White House visit this week could clarify postures through diplomacy, while further escalation in rhetoric or official announcements on priorities like burden-sharing might tip odds toward absence or confirmation.