Recent polling averages place Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan within a few points of each other in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with several surveys showing narrow leads alternating between the candidates ahead of the November general election. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, combined with a top-four primary that advanced multiple candidates, adds uncertainty to first-round margins as voter rankings and turnout patterns among independents, rural voters, and Alaska Native communities influence outcomes. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established name recognition, while Peltola draws support from strong fundraising and crossover appeal in a state that leans Republican at the presidential level. Late shifts in national conditions or campaign spending could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМаржа победы на выборах в Сенат Аляски (первый тур)
Маржа победы на выборах в Сенат Аляски (первый тур)
Салливан 6-9% 23%
Пелтола 6-9% 20%
Пельтола 0-3% 19%
Салливан 9–12% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Салливан 12+%
3%
Салливан 9–12%
13%
Салливан 6-9%
23%
Салливан 3-6%
10%
Салливан 0-3%
20%
Пельтола 0-3%
19%
Пелтола 3-6%
17%
Пелтола 6-9%
20%
Пелтола 9-12%
3%
Пэлтола 12+%
13%
Салливан 6-9% 23%
Пелтола 6-9% 20%
Пельтола 0-3% 19%
Салливан 9–12% 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Салливан 12+%
$249 Объем
3%
Салливан 9–12%
$45 Объем
13%
Салливан 6-9%
$44 Объем
23%
Салливан 3-6%
$86 Объем
10%
Салливан 0-3%
$66 Объем
20%
Пельтола 0-3%
$182 Объем
19%
Пелтола 3-6%
$63 Объем
17%
Пелтола 6-9%
$50 Объем
20%
Пелтола 9-12%
$54 Объем
3%
Пэлтола 12+%
$50 Объем
13%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan within a few points of each other in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with several surveys showing narrow leads alternating between the candidates ahead of the November general election. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, combined with a top-four primary that advanced multiple candidates, adds uncertainty to first-round margins as voter rankings and turnout patterns among independents, rural voters, and Alaska Native communities influence outcomes. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established name recognition, while Peltola draws support from strong fundraising and crossover appeal in a state that leans Republican at the presidential level. Late shifts in national conditions or campaign spending could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Объем
$889Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan within a few points of each other in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with several surveys showing narrow leads alternating between the candidates ahead of the November general election. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, combined with a top-four primary that advanced multiple candidates, adds uncertainty to first-round margins as voter rankings and turnout patterns among independents, rural voters, and Alaska Native communities influence outcomes. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established name recognition, while Peltola draws support from strong fundraising and crossover appeal in a state that leans Republican at the presidential level. Late shifts in national conditions or campaign spending could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$889Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan within a few points of each other in the 2026 Alaska Senate race, with several surveys showing narrow leads alternating between the candidates ahead of the November general election. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, combined with a top-four primary that advanced multiple candidates, adds uncertainty to first-round margins as voter rankings and turnout patterns among independents, rural voters, and Alaska Native communities influence outcomes. Sullivan benefits from incumbency and established name recognition, while Peltola draws support from strong fundraising and crossover appeal in a state that leans Republican at the presidential level. Late shifts in national conditions or campaign spending could widen the gap before ballots are cast.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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