Cape Verde’s November 15, 2026 presidential election, held under its semi-presidential system requiring a majority or runoff, features the PAICV incumbent José Maria Neves as the clear market frontrunner at 70.5 percent implied probability. Traders reflect the party’s recent legislative majority, Neves’ established foreign-policy profile and 2021 first-round victory, and the limited visibility of declared opposition contenders from the MpD such as Janine Lélis and Joana Rosa. Lower-priced names including Casimiro de Pina and others capture residual uncertainty over final nominations and the narrow window before voting, while the broad cluster of 50 percent outcomes signals unresolved candidate fields rather than equal prospects. No major late developments have shifted positioning in the past month.