Official observations from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport meteorological station, under the China Meteorological Administration, confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, reached 20°C around midday, anchoring trader consensus at a 100% implied probability for this outcome. Persistent overcast skies and intermittent sprinkles from a mild frontal system sharply reduced solar insolation, preventing typical daytime heating in the Sichuan Basin where May highs average 26–28°C based on historical climatology. This deviates from earlier forecasts of 23–25°C, as cloud-induced radiative cooling dominated. Realistic challenges would require a post hoc data revision uncovering an unreported peak above 20.5°C, though improbable with evening temperatures now falling below 19°C; final CMA validation expected within 24–48 hours.