Marine layer stratus and onshore flow from cooler Pacific waters are anchoring the leading market-implied probabilities around 76–79 °F for Los Angeles on August 6, consistent with National Weather Service forecasts showing highs near 77–78 °F at KLAX amid persistent low clouds and fog that limit daytime heating. Recent model runs indicate minimal warming from upper-level ridging, keeping coastal maxima well below inland valley peaks and aligned with climatological August averages of 75–82 °F at the airport station. Traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of marine influence persisting through the 24-hour period against smaller probabilities of brief clearing that could push readings into the low 80s. Updated NWS guidance and morning soundings on August 6 will serve as the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in these odds.