Recent short-range forecasts from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum of 14°C for London on August 7 under mostly settled conditions with light westerly winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and limited cloud cover overnight. This aligns with the market's leading 14°C outcome at 45% implied probability, followed by 13°C at 26%, reflecting typical radiational cooling in summer when high pressure influences the region and dew points support modest overnight drops from daytime highs near 25°C. Ensemble models show low variability, with historical August averages around 13–14°C providing context, while any slight increase in cloud or wind could push readings toward 15°C. Traders appear to price in minimal forecast shifts before resolution, given the proximity to the date and consistent guidance from numerical weather prediction.