Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14 at 38–39°C, consistent with recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds under typical late-summer continental conditions. These values align with observed maxima near 39°C in the preceding days and climatological norms for the period, when daily highs commonly reach the upper 30s without significant advection of cooler Atlantic air. Traders have priced 39°C highest (47.5% implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with only modest downside risk to 38°C and low odds of exceeding 40°C absent an unexpected warming anomaly. Updated model cycles and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Мадриде 14 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Мадриде 14 августа?
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 12%
37°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
14 авг. 2026 г.
35°C или ниже
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
6%
38°C
30%
39°C
48%
40°C
12%
41°C
5%
42°C
3%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C или выше
<1%
39°C 48%
38°C 30%
40°C 12%
37°C 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
14 авг. 2026 г.
35°C или ниже
$52 Объем
1%
36°C
$25 Объем
2%
37°C
$86 Объем
6%
38°C
$154 Объем
30%
39°C
$187 Объем
48%
40°C
$235 Объем
12%
41°C
$23 Объем
5%
42°C
$5 Объем
3%
43°C
$12 Объем
<1%
44°C
$16 Объем
<1%
45°C или выше
$31 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14 at 38–39°C, consistent with recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds under typical late-summer continental conditions. These values align with observed maxima near 39°C in the preceding days and climatological norms for the period, when daily highs commonly reach the upper 30s without significant advection of cooler Atlantic air. Traders have priced 39°C highest (47.5% implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with only modest downside risk to 38°C and low odds of exceeding 40°C absent an unexpected warming anomaly. Updated model cycles and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Объем
$825Дата окончания
14 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14 at 38–39°C, consistent with recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds under typical late-summer continental conditions. These values align with observed maxima near 39°C in the preceding days and climatological norms for the period, when daily highs commonly reach the upper 30s without significant advection of cooler Atlantic air. Traders have priced 39°C highest (47.5% implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with only modest downside risk to 38°C and low odds of exceeding 40°C absent an unexpected warming anomaly. Updated model cycles and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$825Дата окончания
14 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s maximum temperature on August 14 at 38–39°C, consistent with recent model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light winds under typical late-summer continental conditions. These values align with observed maxima near 39°C in the preceding days and climatological norms for the period, when daily highs commonly reach the upper 30s without significant advection of cooler Atlantic air. Traders have priced 39°C highest (47.5% implied probability) because ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with only modest downside risk to 38°C and low odds of exceeding 40°C absent an unexpected warming anomaly. Updated model cycles and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will determine whether probabilities shift before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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