Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 6?
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 Объем
$95,898 Объем
6 мая 2026 г.
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$95,898 Объем
$95,898 Объем
6 мая 2026 г.
15°C or below
$451 Объем
No
16°C
$2,872 Объем
No
17°C
$3,922 Объем
No
18°C
$6,427 Объем
No
19°C
$25,366 Объем
No
20°C
$18,244 Объем
Yes
21°C
$11,151 Объем
No
22°C
$9,066 Объем
No
23°C
$6,075 Объем
No
24°C
$5,768 Объем
No
25°C or higher
$6,557 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Объем
$95,898Дата окончания
6 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$95,898Дата окончания
6 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 1:20 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 20°C at a 100% implied probability for Madrid's highest temperature on May 6, driven by real-time observational data from Spain's AEMET agency at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, where the peak of exactly 20°C was recorded in the early afternoon amid partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds suppressing further warming. This aligns with hourly measurements showing temperatures stabilizing then declining toward evening, consistent with typical May diurnal cycles at the site. Earlier ECMWF and GFS model ensembles had projected around 21°C, but actual conditions proved cooler due to increased cloud cover. Realistic challenges include rare post hoc data revisions by AEMET or unverified sensor recalibrations pushing the max higher, though final quality-controlled reports are due shortly with minimal expected shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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