**Persistent subtropical high pressure and a moist tropical airmass continue to support daytime highs near seasonal normals across South Florida, with National Weather Service guidance pointing to a peak of 89–91 °F for Miami on August 6 amid scattered afternoon thunderstorms.** Sea-breeze convergence and diurnal convection typically limit full insolation, keeping actual maxima in the upper 80s to low 90s even as heat indices climb above 105 °F. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day variability, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward the 88–89 °F bin. July’s record warmth has left elevated soil and ocean temperatures that sustain the baseline, while any increase in cloud cover or earlier storm initiation could cap readings at 86–87 °F. The next NWS forecast discussion and updated model guidance ahead of the 24-hour period will be the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in trader-implied probabilities.