Forecast models from agencies like the Russian Hydrometeorological Center and ECMWF show Moscow maximum temperatures on August 11 clustered near 24–26 °C, consistent with late-summer climatology of 22–24 °C highs and typical diurnal ranges of 10–12 °C. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from uncertain cloud cover, weak frontal passages, and variable boundary-layer mixing that can shift peak readings by 1–2 °C; recent 48-hour runs indicate light precipitation potential suppressing maxima slightly below seasonal norms while urban heat-island effects in central Moscow may add marginal warming. With no strong blocking high or heat advection expected, the tightly bunched 20 % probabilities around 24–26 °C reflect this modest forecast uncertainty rather than any single dominant driver.