Incumbent Republican Mike Bost, who secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary, holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district race due to the district's strong Republican lean of roughly R+22 and his consistent electoral strength, including a 74% margin in 2024. The seat covers southern Illinois areas including Carbondale and O'Fallon, where voter patterns have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces significant structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national political shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still alter the trajectory before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей IL-12
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей IL-12
$18,824 Объем
$18,824 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
95%
Демократическая партия
5%
$18,824 Объем
$18,824 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$8,119 Объем
95%
Демократическая партия
$10,705 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost, who secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary, holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district race due to the district's strong Republican lean of roughly R+22 and his consistent electoral strength, including a 74% margin in 2024. The seat covers southern Illinois areas including Carbondale and O'Fallon, where voter patterns have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces significant structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national political shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still alter the trajectory before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$18,824Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost, who secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary, holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district race due to the district's strong Republican lean of roughly R+22 and his consistent electoral strength, including a 74% margin in 2024. The seat covers southern Illinois areas including Carbondale and O'Fallon, where voter patterns have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces significant structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national political shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still alter the trajectory before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$18,824Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost, who secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 2026 primary, holds a commanding position in Illinois's 12th congressional district race due to the district's strong Republican lean of roughly R+22 and his consistent electoral strength, including a 74% margin in 2024. The seat covers southern Illinois areas including Carbondale and O'Fallon, where voter patterns have favored Republicans in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Julie Fortier faces significant structural barriers in a district rated Solid Republican by multiple analysts. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late-cycle developments such as unexpected national political shifts, candidate health events, or major scandals could still alter the trajectory before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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