Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington while Democrat Lauren Jewett represents the main general-election challenge. The district’s suburban and rural voter base, combined with Scalise’s long tenure since 2008 and fundraising edge, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome in the November 3, 2026 primary and December 12 general. Louisiana’s shift to closed partisan primaries this cycle further narrows Democratic pathways. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or national wave could alter the trajectory, though structural factors limit realistic shifts at present.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-01
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-01
$37,648 Объем
$37,648 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
91%
Демократическая партия
9%
$37,648 Объем
$37,648 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$16,151 Объем
91%
Демократическая партия
$21,498 Объем
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington while Democrat Lauren Jewett represents the main general-election challenge. The district’s suburban and rural voter base, combined with Scalise’s long tenure since 2008 and fundraising edge, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome in the November 3, 2026 primary and December 12 general. Louisiana’s shift to closed partisan primaries this cycle further narrows Democratic pathways. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or national wave could alter the trajectory, though structural factors limit realistic shifts at present.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$37,648Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington while Democrat Lauren Jewett represents the main general-election challenge. The district’s suburban and rural voter base, combined with Scalise’s long tenure since 2008 and fundraising edge, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome in the November 3, 2026 primary and December 12 general. Louisiana’s shift to closed partisan primaries this cycle further narrows Democratic pathways. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or national wave could alter the trajectory, though structural factors limit realistic shifts at present.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$37,648Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana’s 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+19 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House majority leader, faces limited primary opposition from Randall Arrington while Democrat Lauren Jewett represents the main general-election challenge. The district’s suburban and rural voter base, combined with Scalise’s long tenure since 2008 and fundraising edge, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome in the November 3, 2026 primary and December 12 general. Louisiana’s shift to closed partisan primaries this cycle further narrows Democratic pathways. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or national wave could alter the trajectory, though structural factors limit realistic shifts at present.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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