**Republican traders hold a strong edge in the LA-06 House race due to post-Supreme Court redistricting that converted the district from a majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seat into a solidly Republican one.** Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields won the open seat in 2024 under the prior map, but the April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling struck down the configuration as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Louisiana lawmakers responded with a new map passed in late May that shifts the Baton Rouge-area district toward Republican performance. Cook Political Report moved the race to Solid Republican (flip) on June 1, consistent with the revised partisan voting index. Multiple Republicans have filed for the November 3, 2026 primary, while Fields remains the leading Democratic candidate. The market’s 84.5% Republican probability reflects trader consensus on the structural change and limited remaining pathways for a Democratic hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-06
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей LA-06
$59,496 Объем
$59,496 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
85%
Демократическая партия
11%
$59,496 Объем
$59,496 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$31,738 Объем
85%
Демократическая партия
$27,758 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican traders hold a strong edge in the LA-06 House race due to post-Supreme Court redistricting that converted the district from a majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seat into a solidly Republican one.**
Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields won the open seat in 2024 under the prior map, but the April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling struck down the configuration as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Louisiana lawmakers responded with a new map passed in late May that shifts the Baton Rouge-area district toward Republican performance. Cook Political Report moved the race to Solid Republican (flip) on June 1, consistent with the revised partisan voting index. Multiple Republicans have filed for the November 3, 2026 primary, while Fields remains the leading Democratic candidate. The market’s 84.5% Republican probability reflects trader consensus on the structural change and limited remaining pathways for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$59,496Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican traders hold a strong edge in the LA-06 House race due to post-Supreme Court redistricting that converted the district from a majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seat into a solidly Republican one.**
Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields won the open seat in 2024 under the prior map, but the April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling struck down the configuration as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Louisiana lawmakers responded with a new map passed in late May that shifts the Baton Rouge-area district toward Republican performance. Cook Political Report moved the race to Solid Republican (flip) on June 1, consistent with the revised partisan voting index. Multiple Republicans have filed for the November 3, 2026 primary, while Fields remains the leading Democratic candidate. The market’s 84.5% Republican probability reflects trader consensus on the structural change and limited remaining pathways for a Democratic hold.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$59,496Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican traders hold a strong edge in the LA-06 House race due to post-Supreme Court redistricting that converted the district from a majority-Black, Democratic-leaning seat into a solidly Republican one.** Incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields won the open seat in 2024 under the prior map, but the April 2026 Louisiana v. Callais ruling struck down the configuration as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Louisiana lawmakers responded with a new map passed in late May that shifts the Baton Rouge-area district toward Republican performance. Cook Political Report moved the race to Solid Republican (flip) on June 1, consistent with the revised partisan voting index. Multiple Republicans have filed for the November 3, 2026 primary, while Fields remains the leading Democratic candidate. The market’s 84.5% Republican probability reflects trader consensus on the structural change and limited remaining pathways for a Democratic hold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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