**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models points to an overnight low in the mid-70s for Austin on September 6, 2026, with ranges centered around 75–78°F.** This aligns closely with the market’s top two bins (74–75°F at 33.5% and 72–73°F at 31.5%), reflecting traders’ weighting of official guidance showing partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and residual tropical moisture from the remnants of Edouard limiting radiational cooling. Typical September climatology features average lows near 70–71°F, but current conditions feature above-normal warmth and humidity that suppress overnight drops. The notable 29.5% on 86°F or higher likely captures a low-probability tail scenario of persistent cloud cover or stalled moisture preventing cooling, though model runs show little support for such extreme warmth. Lower bins (70–71°F and below) remain possible only if clearer skies and drier air arrive faster than expected. Key variables to watch include the next NWS forecast updates and any shifts in steering patterns or dew points over the next 48 hours, as even modest changes in cloud cover or wind can shift the minimum by 2–4°F.