Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Стамбуле 15 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Стамбуле 15 сентября?
16°C 100.0%
14°C или ниже <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,105 Объем
$2,105 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
Нет
15°C
Нет
16°C
Да
17°C
Нет
18°C
Нет
19°C
Нет
20°C
Нет
21°C
Нет
22°C
Нет
23°C
Нет
24°C или выше
Нет
16°C 100.0%
14°C или ниже <1%
15°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,105 Объем
$2,105 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$134 Объем
Нет
15°C
$98 Объем
Нет
16°C
$336 Объем
Да
17°C
$380 Объем
Нет
18°C
$375 Объем
Нет
19°C
$476 Объем
Нет
20°C
$156 Объем
Нет
21°C
$60 Объем
Нет
22°C
$26 Объем
Нет
23°C
$32 Объем
Нет
24°C или выше
$32 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Объем
$2,105Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$2,105Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Recent forecast model consensus, including GFS runs and agency guidance, points to overnight cooling under partly cloudy skies and northeasterly flow, with the daily minimum expected to reach 16°C in Istanbul on September 15. This aligns closely with climatological norms for mid-September while reflecting slightly cooler conditions than recent days. Trader positioning heavily favors 16°C at over 54% implied probability, as current observations and short-range guidance show temperatures bottoming near that threshold before daytime warming. Limited model spread and stable steering patterns reduce the likelihood of notable deviations, though minor revisions in evening data could still influence final recorded values.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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