**Forecast consensus points to a minimum near 29–31°C on August 23, with market odds clustered tightly around 28–32°C reflecting model spread and measurement variability rather than any major shift in conditions.** Jeddah’s Red Sea coastal setting produces persistently warm, humid nights in mid-August, with typical lows of 28–30°C driven by high dew points (often 21–25°C) that limit radiative cooling. Current model runs from sources including WeatherBug, Yr, and Tutiempo show overnight minima of 29–30°C (roughly 84–86°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northwest winds of 3–7 m/s, and negligible rainfall. These conditions match the month’s climatological baseline, where August average lows hover near 28–30°C with little day-to-day volatility absent synoptic changes. The narrow spread in probabilities (19–20% each for 28–32°C) arises from small differences in forecast details: exact wind speeds and timing of the nocturnal minimum, minor cloud-cover variations that modulate longwave radiation loss, and the distinction between station measurements (e.g., King Abdulaziz International Airport) versus city-wide averages. No significant weather systems or anomalies have altered the pattern in recent days, keeping trader focus on these fine-scale uncertainties as the date approaches.