**Trader consensus centers on a mild overnight minimum of 15°C (54.5% implied probability) or 16°C (34%) for London on August 2, reflecting ensemble model guidance showing limited nocturnal cooling under typical early-August conditions.** Persistent above-average warmth through summer 2026, with UK mean temperatures running notably elevated, has left soil and surface temperatures higher than climatological norms. This reduces the potential for sharp overnight drops, especially if increased cloud cover or light winds limit radiative cooling. Long-range outlooks from the Met Office indicate near- or above-normal temperatures into early August, with the first days featuring mild nights around 13–15°C on average and only modest day-to-day variability. Forecasts emphasize a continuation of unsettled but not extreme patterns—possible showers or variable cloud—preventing both strong clear-sky cooling (which could push readings toward 13°C or lower) and excessive retained heat. Historical August minima in London cluster near 14°C, and current model consensus aligns closely with this baseline rather than signaling a significant departure. With resolution occurring the following day, traders are weighting the most recent short-range guidance heavily, concentrating probability on the narrow 15–16°C band while assigning minimal odds to outliers.