Recent model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies will likely produce a minimum temperature in London near 12–13°C on August 23, following a modest cooling trend after mid-month warmth. Clear intervals allow greater heat loss from the surface while light winds limit mixing, keeping values close to seasonal averages rather than the higher readings seen earlier in August. Ensemble spread centers on these thresholds because small differences in cloud timing or Atlantic frontal approach can shift the low by 1°C either way. Traders appear to weigh the balance between continued high-pressure influence and incoming fresher maritime air, with official forecasts expected to refine further as the date nears.