**Trader sentiment for London's lowest temperature on August 28 centers on the closely matched 16°C (43.5%) and 17°C (37%) outcomes, reflecting model consensus around a minimum in that narrow range amid lingering uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling.** Official guidance from the Met Office indicates a minimum near 17°C, with hourly profiles showing early-morning values dipping to around 16°C under southwesterly flow. Other ensembles and statistical guidance place the low slightly cooler near 15–16°C. The market spread captures the typical spread between deterministic and ensemble forecasts at this 48-hour lead time. Key drivers include the passage of a frontal system and associated showers on the 27th–28th, which advect cooler maritime air and increase low-level moisture. Overnight, variable cloud cover and wind speeds (generally 5–10 mph from the southwest) will modulate how much longwave radiation escapes, directly influencing the depth of the nocturnal temperature drop. Clearer breaks favor the lower end of the range by enhancing surface cooling; persistent low cloud or showers would keep readings closer to 17°C through greater mixing and latent heat release. With resolution only two days away, fresh model runs and observational updates from the Met Office will likely tighten the distribution. Historical August minima in London average near 14°C, but the current unsettled pattern supports values several degrees above that baseline. Traders appear to be weighting the balance between these dynamical factors rather than any single outlier scenario.