Recent forecasts from PAGASA and international models indicate Manila's overnight low on August 22 will likely settle between 25–27°C amid lingering southwest monsoon moisture and variable cloud cover following the weakening of Tropical Depression Neneng. High humidity near 85–95% combined with scattered showers and thunderstorms reduces nighttime radiative cooling, supporting the market's tight clustering around 25–28°C. Steering winds from the west and potential for partial clearing versus persistent overcast conditions represent the main variables that could shift the minimum by 1–2°C, with urban heat retention in Metro Manila further moderating extremes. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.