The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Маниле 26 августа?
Самая низкая температура в Маниле 26 августа?
21°C или ниже 53%
31°C или выше 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 авг. 2026 г.
21°C или ниже
53%
22°C
20%
23°C
48%
24°C
48%
25°C
50%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
48%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C или выше
53%
21°C или ниже 53%
31°C или выше 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 авг. 2026 г.
21°C или ниже
$0 Объем
53%
22°C
$0 Объем
20%
23°C
$0 Объем
48%
24°C
$0 Объем
48%
25°C
$0 Объем
50%
26°C
$0 Объем
26%
27°C
$0 Объем
26%
28°C
$0 Объем
48%
29°C
$0 Объем
48%
30°C
$0 Объем
2%
31°C или выше
$0 Объем
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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