Current forecast models from NOAA and AccuWeather project Miami overnight lows on August 16 in the 79–82°F range, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, elevated Atlantic and Gulf sea-surface temperatures near 86°F, and high dew points that suppress radiational cooling. Light southeast winds and partly cloudy skies further limit temperature drops, consistent with mid-August climatology where average lows reach about 80°F. These conditions underpin the market's strongest implied probabilities for 82–83°F (40.5%) and 80–81°F (30.5%), while lower bins reflect only modest downside risk if clearer skies or a brief wind shift develop overnight. Updated model runs and NHC guidance on any tropical moisture will be key near-term catalysts for shifts in trader positioning.