Forecast models from European meteorological services indicate overnight radiative cooling under generally clear to partly cloudy skies will drive Paris's minimum temperature on August 6 into the 15–16°C range, aligning with the 56% and 37% market-implied probabilities. Typical early-August climatology features average lows near 14.6°C, and current guidance shows no strong cold advection or unusual moisture that would push readings lower. Recent continental heat has elevated baseline temperatures but appears to be moderating, with ensemble consensus narrowing uncertainty around these thresholds ahead of official Météo-France verification. Traders are weighting historical analogs and short-range model runs that rarely produce extremes outside 14–17°C at this time of year.