Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.