**Cooler northeasterly flow behind a strong frontal system is the main driver positioning 19–21 °C as the market’s leading outcomes for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on 10 September.** After hot, stormy conditions on the 9th with daytime highs near 30–32 °C, a rain front and subsequent northerly winds have advected cooler, more stable maritime air across the Kanto region. Official and ensemble guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show overnight lows bottoming out near 19–20 °C in the pre-dawn hours, with only modest daytime recovery to 21–24 °C under persistent cloud cover and light rain. Historical September climatology for Tokyo places typical overnight minima around 22 °C, so this represents a clear 2–3 °C negative anomaly driven by the post-frontal environment. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 19–21 °C reflects high model consensus on the minimum, with limited upside risk from any late clearing or downside from heavier rain bands. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official Tokyo observation (usually the 24-hour minimum ending at 09:00 JST on the 11th) will serve as the resolution benchmark; fresh model runs and surface observations through the night of the 9th–10th remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 10 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Токио 10 сентября?
20°C 48%
19°C 22%
21°C 18%
22°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
8%
19°C
22%
20°C
48%
21°C
18%
22°C
9%
23°C
2%
24°C или выше
1%
20°C 48%
19°C 22%
21°C 18%
22°C 10%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$18 Объем
<1%
15°C
$223 Объем
2%
16°C
$214 Объем
2%
17°C
$218 Объем
2%
18°C
$62 Объем
8%
19°C
$458 Объем
22%
20°C
$409 Объем
48%
21°C
$192 Объем
18%
22°C
$67 Объем
9%
23°C
$126 Объем
2%
24°C или выше
$30 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler northeasterly flow behind a strong frontal system is the main driver positioning 19–21 °C as the market’s leading outcomes for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on 10 September.**
After hot, stormy conditions on the 9th with daytime highs near 30–32 °C, a rain front and subsequent northerly winds have advected cooler, more stable maritime air across the Kanto region. Official and ensemble guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show overnight lows bottoming out near 19–20 °C in the pre-dawn hours, with only modest daytime recovery to 21–24 °C under persistent cloud cover and light rain. Historical September climatology for Tokyo places typical overnight minima around 22 °C, so this represents a clear 2–3 °C negative anomaly driven by the post-frontal environment.
The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 19–21 °C reflects high model consensus on the minimum, with limited upside risk from any late clearing or downside from heavier rain bands. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official Tokyo observation (usually the 24-hour minimum ending at 09:00 JST on the 11th) will serve as the resolution benchmark; fresh model runs and surface observations through the night of the 9th–10th remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$1,986Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler northeasterly flow behind a strong frontal system is the main driver positioning 19–21 °C as the market’s leading outcomes for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on 10 September.**
After hot, stormy conditions on the 9th with daytime highs near 30–32 °C, a rain front and subsequent northerly winds have advected cooler, more stable maritime air across the Kanto region. Official and ensemble guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show overnight lows bottoming out near 19–20 °C in the pre-dawn hours, with only modest daytime recovery to 21–24 °C under persistent cloud cover and light rain. Historical September climatology for Tokyo places typical overnight minima around 22 °C, so this represents a clear 2–3 °C negative anomaly driven by the post-frontal environment.
The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 19–21 °C reflects high model consensus on the minimum, with limited upside risk from any late clearing or downside from heavier rain bands. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official Tokyo observation (usually the 24-hour minimum ending at 09:00 JST on the 11th) will serve as the resolution benchmark; fresh model runs and surface observations through the night of the 9th–10th remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$1,986Дата окончания
10 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Cooler northeasterly flow behind a strong frontal system is the main driver positioning 19–21 °C as the market’s leading outcomes for Tokyo’s minimum temperature on 10 September.** After hot, stormy conditions on the 9th with daytime highs near 30–32 °C, a rain front and subsequent northerly winds have advected cooler, more stable maritime air across the Kanto region. Official and ensemble guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show overnight lows bottoming out near 19–20 °C in the pre-dawn hours, with only modest daytime recovery to 21–24 °C under persistent cloud cover and light rain. Historical September climatology for Tokyo places typical overnight minima around 22 °C, so this represents a clear 2–3 °C negative anomaly driven by the post-frontal environment. The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 19–21 °C reflects high model consensus on the minimum, with limited upside risk from any late clearing or downside from heavier rain bands. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official Tokyo observation (usually the 24-hour minimum ending at 09:00 JST on the 11th) will serve as the resolution benchmark; fresh model runs and surface observations through the night of the 9th–10th remain the key near-term catalysts for any probability shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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