Recent forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo facing an active weather pattern on September 15, with widespread thunderstorms and southerly flow delivering humid air masses that favor overnight lows near 22–24 °C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce radiative cooling, limiting the potential for sub-20 °C readings while also suppressing daytime maxima below the 29 °C threshold. Ensemble spreads remain wide because steering currents and exact timing of frontal passages can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows around 22 °C, providing context for why trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 23 °C yet assign nearly equal weight to the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 15 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Токио 15 сентября?
23°C 39%
24°C 36%
22°C 19%
19°C или ниже 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
19°C или ниже
15%
20°C
9%
21°C
9%
22°C
19%
23°C
39%
24°C
36%
25°C
9%
26°C
8%
27°C
9%
28°C
6%
29°C или выше
4%
23°C 39%
24°C 36%
22°C 19%
19°C или ниже 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
15 сент. 2026 г.
19°C или ниже
$10 Объем
15%
20°C
$0 Объем
9%
21°C
$0 Объем
9%
22°C
$0 Объем
19%
23°C
$0 Объем
39%
24°C
$0 Объем
36%
25°C
$0 Объем
9%
26°C
$0 Объем
8%
27°C
$10 Объем
9%
28°C
$10 Объем
6%
29°C или выше
$10 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo facing an active weather pattern on September 15, with widespread thunderstorms and southerly flow delivering humid air masses that favor overnight lows near 22–24 °C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce radiative cooling, limiting the potential for sub-20 °C readings while also suppressing daytime maxima below the 29 °C threshold. Ensemble spreads remain wide because steering currents and exact timing of frontal passages can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows around 22 °C, providing context for why trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 23 °C yet assign nearly equal weight to the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Объем
$40Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo facing an active weather pattern on September 15, with widespread thunderstorms and southerly flow delivering humid air masses that favor overnight lows near 22–24 °C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce radiative cooling, limiting the potential for sub-20 °C readings while also suppressing daytime maxima below the 29 °C threshold. Ensemble spreads remain wide because steering currents and exact timing of frontal passages can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows around 22 °C, providing context for why trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 23 °C yet assign nearly equal weight to the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$40Дата окончания
15 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency show Tokyo facing an active weather pattern on September 15, with widespread thunderstorms and southerly flow delivering humid air masses that favor overnight lows near 22–24 °C. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce radiative cooling, limiting the potential for sub-20 °C readings while also suppressing daytime maxima below the 29 °C threshold. Ensemble spreads remain wide because steering currents and exact timing of frontal passages can shift minimum temperatures by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical overnight lows around 22 °C, providing context for why trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 23 °C yet assign nearly equal weight to the cooler and warmer extremes. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will likely narrow these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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