Latest ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show increased potential for clear skies and a modest influx of cooler maritime air over central Europe, favoring enhanced radiative cooling and minimum temperatures in Warsaw dipping toward 8–12°C on August 23. This aligns with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 8°C-or-below outcome at 43 percent implied probability, as traders price in model spread and the chance of stronger nocturnal cooling than seasonal norms of 12–15°C. Recent runs have trended slightly cooler than earlier guidance, though consensus still centers around 10–13°C. The next high-resolution updates and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.