Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 12 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 12 сентября?
6°C 100.0%
4°C или ниже <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 Объем
$877 Объем
12 сент. 2026 г.
4°C или ниже
Нет
5°C
Нет
6°C
Да
7°C
Нет
8°C
Нет
9°C
Нет
10°C
Нет
11°C
Нет
12°C
Нет
13°C
Нет
14°C или выше
Нет
6°C 100.0%
4°C или ниже <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
$877 Объем
$877 Объем
12 сент. 2026 г.
4°C или ниже
$153 Объем
Нет
5°C
$22 Объем
Нет
6°C
$105 Объем
Да
7°C
$45 Объем
Нет
8°C
$112 Объем
Нет
9°C
$191 Объем
Нет
10°C
$235 Объем
Нет
11°C
$0 Объем
Нет
12°C
$15 Объем
Нет
13°C
$0 Объем
Нет
14°C или выше
$0 Объем
Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$877Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$877Дата окончания
12 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
Current forecast models from MetService and international ensembles indicate radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light northerly winds will drive Wellington’s overnight minimum to 6°C on September 12. Surface observations and satellite-derived boundary-layer data support this consensus, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability for a 6°C low. Historical September minima average near 9°C, so the cooler outcome reflects a transient high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. Traders assign negligible odds to 5°C or lower because model spread remains narrow and no cold-air advection is expected. A sudden increase in low-level cloud or a wind shift from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C, though such changes appear unlikely before official daily minimum reporting concludes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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