Forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 7–9°C for Wellington on September 14, driven by northerly flow under partly cloudy skies that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent high-pressure influence and above-average sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand have kept early-spring nights milder than climatological norms, with historical September lows averaging about 9–10°C. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread and potential for localized cooling pockets against this consensus, resulting in elevated implied odds for outcomes at or below 4°C while clustering probability around the 7–9°C range. Updated model runs and official minimum observations expected by early September 15 will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 14 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Веллингтоне 14 сентября?
4°C или ниже 85%
11°C 40%
8°C 28%
7°C 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
14 сент. 2026 г.
4°C или ниже
85%
5°C
18%
6°C
21%
7°C
25%
8°C
28%
9°C
22%
10°C
7%
11°C
40%
12°C
18%
13°C
17%
14°C или выше
1%
4°C или ниже 85%
11°C 40%
8°C 28%
7°C 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
14 сент. 2026 г.
4°C или ниже
$0 Объем
85%
5°C
$0 Объем
18%
6°C
$24 Объем
21%
7°C
$0 Объем
25%
8°C
$0 Объем
28%
9°C
$0 Объем
22%
10°C
$328 Объем
7%
11°C
$0 Объем
40%
12°C
$0 Объем
18%
13°C
$0 Объем
17%
14°C или выше
$0 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 7–9°C for Wellington on September 14, driven by northerly flow under partly cloudy skies that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent high-pressure influence and above-average sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand have kept early-spring nights milder than climatological norms, with historical September lows averaging about 9–10°C. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread and potential for localized cooling pockets against this consensus, resulting in elevated implied odds for outcomes at or below 4°C while clustering probability around the 7–9°C range. Updated model runs and official minimum observations expected by early September 15 will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Объем
$352Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 7–9°C for Wellington on September 14, driven by northerly flow under partly cloudy skies that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent high-pressure influence and above-average sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand have kept early-spring nights milder than climatological norms, with historical September lows averaging about 9–10°C. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread and potential for localized cooling pockets against this consensus, resulting in elevated implied odds for outcomes at or below 4°C while clustering probability around the 7–9°C range. Updated model runs and official minimum observations expected by early September 15 will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$352Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like MetService and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 7–9°C for Wellington on September 14, driven by northerly flow under partly cloudy skies that limits strong radiational cooling overnight. Recent high-pressure influence and above-average sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand have kept early-spring nights milder than climatological norms, with historical September lows averaging about 9–10°C. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread and potential for localized cooling pockets against this consensus, resulting in elevated implied odds for outcomes at or below 4°C while clustering probability around the 7–9°C range. Updated model runs and official minimum observations expected by early September 15 will likely refine these market-implied probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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