Recent polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 6–12 points amid a challenging environment for the president's party, with forecasts projecting Republicans around 200–210 seats after November. Mid-decade redistricting in states including Texas and Florida has added roughly 8–11 Republican-leaning districts, narrowing the effective swing needed for Democratic gains and spreading projected outcomes across multiple seat bands. A large number of toss-up and lean races—mostly Republican-held—plus variable turnout, candidate quality, and late-cycle economic or approval shifts create dispersion in trader pricing. Historical midterm patterns and current polling aggregates keep the distribution broad rather than concentrated near any single range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМеста в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
Места в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
Менее 190 23%
195-199 16%
190-194 13%
205-209 12.3%
$302,629 Объем
$302,629 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 190
23%
190-194
13%
195-199
16%
200–204
12%
205-209
12%
210-214
10%
215-219
7%
220-224
3%
225-229
2%
230+
2%
Менее 190 23%
195-199 16%
190-194 13%
205-209 12.3%
$302,629 Объем
$302,629 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 190
$39,296 Объем
23%
190-194
$15,498 Объем
13%
195-199
$34,102 Объем
16%
200–204
$26,766 Объем
12%
205-209
$41,743 Объем
12%
210-214
$16,547 Объем
10%
215-219
$12,130 Объем
7%
220-224
$59,810 Объем
3%
225-229
$25,066 Объем
2%
230+
$31,671 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 6–12 points amid a challenging environment for the president's party, with forecasts projecting Republicans around 200–210 seats after November. Mid-decade redistricting in states including Texas and Florida has added roughly 8–11 Republican-leaning districts, narrowing the effective swing needed for Democratic gains and spreading projected outcomes across multiple seat bands. A large number of toss-up and lean races—mostly Republican-held—plus variable turnout, candidate quality, and late-cycle economic or approval shifts create dispersion in trader pricing. Historical midterm patterns and current polling aggregates keep the distribution broad rather than concentrated near any single range.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$302,629Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 6–12 points amid a challenging environment for the president's party, with forecasts projecting Republicans around 200–210 seats after November. Mid-decade redistricting in states including Texas and Florida has added roughly 8–11 Republican-leaning districts, narrowing the effective swing needed for Democratic gains and spreading projected outcomes across multiple seat bands. A large number of toss-up and lean races—mostly Republican-held—plus variable turnout, candidate quality, and late-cycle economic or approval shifts create dispersion in trader pricing. Historical midterm patterns and current polling aggregates keep the distribution broad rather than concentrated near any single range.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$302,629Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 6–12 points amid a challenging environment for the president's party, with forecasts projecting Republicans around 200–210 seats after November. Mid-decade redistricting in states including Texas and Florida has added roughly 8–11 Republican-leaning districts, narrowing the effective swing needed for Democratic gains and spreading projected outcomes across multiple seat bands. A large number of toss-up and lean races—mostly Republican-held—plus variable turnout, candidate quality, and late-cycle economic or approval shifts create dispersion in trader pricing. Historical midterm patterns and current polling aggregates keep the distribution broad rather than concentrated near any single range.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли у Республиканской партии 47 или меньше мест в Сенате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
37%
Да
Будет ли у республиканцев 47–49 мест в Сенате и 193–207 мест в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
31%
Да
Будет ли Демократическая партия контролировать Палату представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
93%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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