Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of 5–7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns against the president’s party, underpins trader expectations for Republican seat losses from their current narrow 218–220 majority. Dozens of competitive districts, high Republican retirements, and special election results have kept the race tight, while completed redistricting has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps without fully offsetting the national environment. This produces the observed market spread centered on 190–200 Republican seats, with separation likely hinging on fall campaign dynamics, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any shifts in the generic ballot before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМеста в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
Места в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
Менее 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 15%
205-209 11.8%
$284,333 Объем
$284,333 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 190
24%
190-194
15%
195-199
16%
200–204
12%
205-209
12%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
2%
225-229
1%
230+
3%
Менее 190 24%
195-199 16%
190-194 15%
205-209 11.8%
$284,333 Объем
$284,333 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Менее 190
$31,187 Объем
24%
190-194
$13,576 Объем
15%
195-199
$32,609 Объем
16%
200–204
$24,750 Объем
12%
205-209
$40,227 Объем
12%
210-214
$15,669 Объем
9%
215-219
$11,450 Объем
7%
220-224
$59,166 Объем
2%
225-229
$24,724 Объем
1%
230+
$30,975 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of 5–7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns against the president’s party, underpins trader expectations for Republican seat losses from their current narrow 218–220 majority. Dozens of competitive districts, high Republican retirements, and special election results have kept the race tight, while completed redistricting has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps without fully offsetting the national environment. This produces the observed market spread centered on 190–200 Republican seats, with separation likely hinging on fall campaign dynamics, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any shifts in the generic ballot before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$284,333Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of 5–7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns against the president’s party, underpins trader expectations for Republican seat losses from their current narrow 218–220 majority. Dozens of competitive districts, high Republican retirements, and special election results have kept the race tight, while completed redistricting has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps without fully offsetting the national environment. This produces the observed market spread centered on 190–200 Republican seats, with separation likely hinging on fall campaign dynamics, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any shifts in the generic ballot before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$284,333Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of 5–7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns against the president’s party, underpins trader expectations for Republican seat losses from their current narrow 218–220 majority. Dozens of competitive districts, high Republican retirements, and special election results have kept the race tight, while completed redistricting has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps without fully offsetting the national environment. This produces the observed market spread centered on 190–200 Republican seats, with separation likely hinging on fall campaign dynamics, candidate recruitment in toss-ups, and any shifts in the generic ballot before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли у Республиканской партии 47 или меньше мест в Сенате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
26%
Да
Будет ли у республиканцев 47–49 мест в Сенате и 193–207 мест в Палате представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
24%
Да
Будет ли Демократическая партия контролировать Палату представителей после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
88%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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