Elaine Pelino holds a commanding lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for governor, scheduled for September 9, reflecting trader consensus on her consistent polling advantage over Aaron Guckian. Recent surveys, including an August Embold Research poll and earlier UNH data, show Pelino ahead by roughly 20 points among likely GOP primary voters, with large shares undecided but her support holding steady. As a political newcomer emphasizing conservative positions on spending, education reform, and law enforcement, Pelino has mobilized grassroots and social media support in a low-turnout primary environment. Guckian received the state party endorsement in June, yet this has not translated into polling gains. Remaining candidates have withdrawn or been disqualified. Late shifts in turnout or mobilization among the small Republican electorate represent the main scenarios that could narrow Pelino’s position before ballots close.