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Политика·Трамп

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

Market icon
Политика·Трамп

Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?

15% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
15% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin 50% implied probability for Arizona Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego vacating his seat by May 31, balancing intense partisan pressure from his association with scandal-hit former Rep. Eric Swalwell against a lack of direct evidence implicating Gallego himself. Over the past week, Swalwell suspended his California gubernatorial bid amid sexual misconduct allegations, prompting Gallego—his ex-roommate and recent endorser—to withdraw support and claim in an emotional April 13 press conference that he was "fooled" by Swalwell's double life. Former Rep. George Santos escalated demands yesterday, alleging similar patterns in Gallego's past conduct, spurring social media calls for resignation or expulsion. Absent verified claims or a formal ethics probe, odds could tip toward "Yes" on new video evidence or Democratic leadership distancing, or "No" if the controversy fades amid Gallego's freshman incumbency in competitive Arizona.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a razor-thin 50% implied probability for Arizona Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego vacating his seat by May 31, balancing intense partisan pressure from his association with scandal-hit former Rep. Eric Swalwell against a lack of direct evidence implicating Gallego himself. Over the past week, Swalwell suspended his California gubernatorial bid amid sexual misconduct allegations, prompting Gallego—his ex-roommate and recent endorser—to withdraw support and claim in an emotional April 13 press conference that he was "fooled" by Swalwell's double life. Former Rep. George Santos escalated demands yesterday, alleging similar patterns in Gallego's past conduct, spurring social media calls for resignation or expulsion. Absent verified claims or a formal ethics probe, odds could tip toward "Yes" on new video evidence or Democratic leadership distancing, or "No" if the controversy fades amid Gallego's freshman incumbency in competitive Arizona.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$0
Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 14% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 14¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 14%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Apr 14, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?» составляет 14% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 14%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Ruben Gallego out as US Senator by May 31?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.