Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 hinges on federal immigration adjustments, with net outflows of non-permanent residents offsetting gains from permanent resident admissions and natural increase. Recent Statistics Canada quarterly estimates show a 0.2% decline in the first quarter of 2026, following policy measures under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan that cap temporary residents and reduce targets for new arrivals. Projections from the Parliamentary Budget Office and Statistics Canada scenarios indicate flat or modestly negative annual growth through 2026, though actual outcomes depend on permit expirations, extensions, and conversion rates to permanent status. This balance keeps implied probabilities near even, with further data revisions or shifts in outflow pace capable of tipping the result either direction by year-end.