The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 21°C or 22°C as Amsterdam’s August 6 maximum reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty in ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and GFS. In the Netherlands’ temperate maritime climate, small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, North Sea breeze strength, and cloud-cover timing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current analyses show a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest insolation, yet variable low-level moisture and wind direction introduce spread across members. Traders are weighting the consensus median near 21–22 °C while discounting tails below 20 °C or above 23 °C. Updated model runs and morning surface observations tomorrow will further narrow the distribution before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 6?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 6?
21°C 43%
22°C 35%
20°C 22%
19°C 3%
ใหม่
$20,526 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$20,526 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
3%
20°C
22%
21°C
43%
22°C
35%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 43%
22°C 35%
20°C 22%
19°C 3%
ใหม่
$20,526 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$20,526 ปริมาณ
Aug 6, 2026
17°C or below
$859 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$1,553 ปริมาณ
1%
19°C
$1,791 ปริมาณ
3%
20°C
$3,843 ปริมาณ
22%
21°C
$2,245 ปริมาณ
43%
22°C
$4,657 ปริมาณ
35%
23°C
$1,534 ปริมาณ
2%
24°C
$1,262 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$935 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$523 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C or higher
$1,323 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 21°C or 22°C as Amsterdam’s August 6 maximum reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty in ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and GFS. In the Netherlands’ temperate maritime climate, small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, North Sea breeze strength, and cloud-cover timing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current analyses show a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest insolation, yet variable low-level moisture and wind direction introduce spread across members. Traders are weighting the consensus median near 21–22 °C while discounting tails below 20 °C or above 23 °C. Updated model runs and morning surface observations tomorrow will further narrow the distribution before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 4, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,526วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 21°C or 22°C as Amsterdam’s August 6 maximum reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty in ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and GFS. In the Netherlands’ temperate maritime climate, small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, North Sea breeze strength, and cloud-cover timing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current analyses show a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest insolation, yet variable low-level moisture and wind direction introduce spread across members. Traders are weighting the consensus median near 21–22 °C while discounting tails below 20 °C or above 23 °C. Updated model runs and morning surface observations tomorrow will further narrow the distribution before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$20,526วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 6, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 4, 2026, 1:04 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds favoring 21°C or 22°C as Amsterdam’s August 6 maximum reflect genuine short-range forecast uncertainty in ensemble guidance from models such as ECMWF and GFS. In the Netherlands’ temperate maritime climate, small differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing, North Sea breeze strength, and cloud-cover timing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Current analyses show a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest insolation, yet variable low-level moisture and wind direction introduce spread across members. Traders are weighting the consensus median near 21–22 °C while discounting tails below 20 °C or above 23 °C. Updated model runs and morning surface observations tomorrow will further narrow the distribution before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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