Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?
31°C 33%
30°C 28%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
28%
31°C
33%
32°C
22%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 33%
30°C 28%
32°C 22%
33°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 5, 2026
27°C or below
$5 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$217 ปริมาณ
3%
29°C
$102 ปริมาณ
7%
30°C
$45 ปริมาณ
28%
31°C
$272 ปริมาณ
33%
32°C
$135 ปริมาณ
22%
33°C
$276 ปริมาณ
9%
34°C
$55 ปริมาณ
4%
35°C
$380 ปริมาณ
2%
36°C
$600 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C or higher
$74 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,161วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,161วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Hong Kong Observatory and global model guidance point to peak temperatures of 30–31°C on August 5 as the most probable outcomes, driven by persistent southwesterly monsoon flow, widespread cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Climatologically, early-August highs average near 32°C, but current ensemble spreads show modest cooling from expected rainfall and high humidity, keeping extremes above 33°C or below 29°C less likely. Traders are weighting these near-term forecast runs heavily, with resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters. Updated model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely refine probabilities ahead of the event.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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