Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 1?
38°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$109,031 ปริมาณ
$109,031 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
34°C or below
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
34°C or below <1%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$109,031 ปริมาณ
$109,031 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
34°C or below
$3,497 ปริมาณ
No
35°C
$10,290 ปริมาณ
No
36°C
$14,769 ปริมาณ
No
37°C
$13,216 ปริมาณ
No
38°C
$18,249 ปริมาณ
Yes
39°C
$14,733 ปริมาณ
No
40°C
$12,387 ปริมาณ
No
41°C
$6,259 ปริมาณ
No
42°C
$3,278 ปริมาณ
No
43°C
$11,583 ปริมาณ
No
44°C or higher
$769 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$109,031วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$109,031วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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