**Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models drives the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 28–31°C.** As of August 25, 2026, official and ensemble guidance from sources including the Met Office, GFS, and ECMWF place Milan’s expected maximum on August 27 near 30–31°C (86–90°F), with some runs indicating slightly lower values around 27–29°C under increased cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms. Late-summer Po Valley conditions—characterized by weak synoptic flow, high boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—produce a narrow but non-zero ensemble spread that aligns with the 25% probabilities each for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C. Minor model disagreements on convective timing and coverage explain why probabilities remain balanced rather than concentrated on a single outcome, with only limited market weight on extremes above 32°C or below 28°C. Updated model runs and morning observations on August 26–27 will provide the next resolution signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Milan on August 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 27?
30°C 32%
31°C 32%
29°C 19%
28°C 18%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
3%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
4%
28°C
18%
29°C
19%
30°C
41%
31°C
32%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
3%
30°C 32%
31°C 32%
29°C 19%
28°C 18%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 27, 2026
24°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
25°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
26°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
18%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
41%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
32%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
33°C
$50 ปริมาณ
2%
34°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models drives the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 28–31°C.** As of August 25, 2026, official and ensemble guidance from sources including the Met Office, GFS, and ECMWF place Milan’s expected maximum on August 27 near 30–31°C (86–90°F), with some runs indicating slightly lower values around 27–29°C under increased cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms.
Late-summer Po Valley conditions—characterized by weak synoptic flow, high boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—produce a narrow but non-zero ensemble spread that aligns with the 25% probabilities each for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C. Minor model disagreements on convective timing and coverage explain why probabilities remain balanced rather than concentrated on a single outcome, with only limited market weight on extremes above 32°C or below 28°C. Updated model runs and morning observations on August 26–27 will provide the next resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models drives the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 28–31°C.** As of August 25, 2026, official and ensemble guidance from sources including the Met Office, GFS, and ECMWF place Milan’s expected maximum on August 27 near 30–31°C (86–90°F), with some runs indicating slightly lower values around 27–29°C under increased cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms.
Late-summer Po Valley conditions—characterized by weak synoptic flow, high boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—produce a narrow but non-zero ensemble spread that aligns with the 25% probabilities each for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C. Minor model disagreements on convective timing and coverage explain why probabilities remain balanced rather than concentrated on a single outcome, with only limited market weight on extremes above 32°C or below 28°C. Updated model runs and morning observations on August 26–27 will provide the next resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$50วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-term forecast uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models drives the evenly distributed market-implied odds across 28–31°C.** As of August 25, 2026, official and ensemble guidance from sources including the Met Office, GFS, and ECMWF place Milan’s expected maximum on August 27 near 30–31°C (86–90°F), with some runs indicating slightly lower values around 27–29°C under increased cloud cover or scattered thunderstorms. Late-summer Po Valley conditions—characterized by weak synoptic flow, high boundary-layer moisture, and diurnal heating under partly cloudy skies—produce a narrow but non-zero ensemble spread that aligns with the 25% probabilities each for 28°C, 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C. Minor model disagreements on convective timing and coverage explain why probabilities remain balanced rather than concentrated on a single outcome, with only limited market weight on extremes above 32°C or below 28°C. Updated model runs and morning observations on August 26–27 will provide the next resolution signals.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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