Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 5?
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$71,666 ปริมาณ
$71,666 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$71,666 ปริมาณ
$71,666 ปริมาณ
May 5, 2026
20°C or below
$1,859 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$1,504 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$1,838 ปริมาณ
No
23°C
$2,398 ปริมาณ
No
24°C
$2,718 ปริมาณ
No
25°C
$4,262 ปริมาณ
No
26°C
$7,788 ปริมาณ
No
27°C
$14,548 ปริมาณ
No
28°C
$10,972 ปริมาณ
Yes
29°C
$12,616 ปริมาณ
No
30°C or higher
$11,164 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,666วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,666วันสิ้นสุด
May 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 3, 2026, 12:22 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Official observations from Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) and Warsaw Chopin Airport (EPWA) METAR reports confirm the city's highest temperature on May 5 peaked at 28°C during midday hours, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability for this outcome amid clear skies and a dominant high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and allowing solar heating to maximize surface temperatures. Hourly data showed steady climbs from morning lows near 12°C, topping out at 28°C before diurnal cooling set in, aligning with the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts that converged on 27-29°C highs over the past 48 hours. This exceeds Warsaw's early May climatological average of 18-20°C, reflecting mild advection from southern air masses. Realistic challenges would require anomalous late-day urban heat island effects or discrepant readings from secondary stations prompting IMGW revisions, though multi-site consensus renders this improbable; final daily validation expected by evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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